Green News

Carbon Tracker study finds solar and wind energy potential is 100 times as much as global energy demand

Solar and wind power could push fossil fuels out of the electricity sector by the mid-2030s and out of the energy supply system altogether by 2050, as clean energy costs continue to plummet and governments pursue policies designed to ditch fossil fuels for cheap, home-grown renewables.

That is the compelling conclusion of a new analysis from the Carbon Tracker think tank, which today argues that dramatic decline in the cost of solar and wind power over the last three years has unlocked a huge energy reserve that could meet global energy demand 100 times over. 

The report, entitled The Sky's The Limit, argues the current renewables market has only scratched the surface of total renewable reserves, with just 0.01 per cent of solar and 0.16 per cent of wind potential tapped thus far. It calculates the world's feasible reserves of solar and wind power stand at 5,800 petawatt hours (PWh) and 900PWh annually, using current clean energy technologies, figures that dwarf the 65PWh used by the global energy system in 2019.

As such, the analysts predict exponential growth for the solar and wind power sectors, noting that "humans specialise in extracting cheap energy, and fast".

The business and energy opportunity presented by clean energy development is significantly larger than that of fossil fuels extraction and production, the analysis calculates, adding there is potential to generate more solar power in one year than could be generated from burning all known fossil fuel reserves.

Harry Benham, report co-author and chairman of think tank Ember-Climate, argued that only a fraction of the world's extensive renewable resources would need to be tapped to replace fossil fuel power. "The world does not need to exploit its entire renewable resource -- just one per cent is enough to replace all fossil fuel usage," he said. "Each year we are fuelling the climate crisis by burning three million years of fossilised sunshine in coal, oil and gas while we use just 0.01 per cent of daily sunshine."

The proportion of the world's solar and wind resources that are more economically competitive than fossil fuels is growing as renewable costs continue to decline, the report notes. Roughly 60 per cent of the world's solar resource and 15 per cent of its wind resource is currently economically competitive compared to fossil fuels, and the report projects that by 2030 100 per cent of solar resource and 50 per cent of wind resource could undercut fossil fuels.

"The fossil fuel era is over," the report states. "The fossil fuel industry cannot compete with the technology learning curves of renewables, so demand will inevitably fall as solar and wind continue to grow. At the current 15 to 20 per cent growth rates of solar and wind, fossil fuels will be pushed out of the electricity sector by the mid-2030s and out of total energy supply by 2050."

The report categorises countries into four key groups based on their potential to harness solar and wind resources relative to their domestic consumption and concludes that Africa is a "renewables superpower" due to its huge solar potential and relatively low energy demand.

However, while most countries in sub-Saharan Africa have renewable energy potential 1,000 times greater than energy demand, Japan, South Korea, and many countries in Europe have potential that is less than 10 times current demand, the report finds. As such, it warns these nations face "touch political choices" about how to tap their renewable resources most effectively over the years ahead.

The UK is placed in the "replete" category, with the researchers calculating it has technical renewables potential that is just over 10 times demand.

"We are entering a new epoch, comparable to the industrial revolution," Carbon Tracker energy strategist and lead author Kingsmill Bond said. "Energy will tumble in price and become available to millions more, particularly in low-income countries. Geopolitics will be transformed as nations are freed from expensive imports of coal, oil and gas. Clean renewables will fight catastrophic climate change and free the planet from deadly pollution."

Any analysis about the planet's immense potential renewables capacity inevitably invites warnings about the reliability of a grid that is reliant on 100 per cent renewables and the land use impact of increasing solar and wind capacity by an order of magnitude. But the report argues that the emergence of the offshore wind industry and rapid improvements in solar efficiency mean that "land is no constraint" to the development of renewables. The land for solar power alone to satisfy global energy demand in the world - approximately 450,000 kilometres squared, or 0.3 per cent of all land - is smaller than the footprint of fossil fuels today, it calculates. Meanwhile, there is growing confidence across much of the energy industry that a combination of fast-maturing energy storage technologies, green hydrogen, and flexible grid systems could enable renewables-dominated grids.

The challenge of retiring the fossil fuel industry in the space of a few decades remains daunting in the extreme, but as Carbon Tracker's latest report underscores the energy industry's fundamental economics are only moving in one direction.

Now is the time for all UK businesses to look to international markets and take British ingenuity to every corner of the planet, writes International Trade Minister Graham Stuart MP

Since its inception in 1970, Earth Day has become a powerful tool for raising awareness of the grave ecological threats to our planet. That awareness has built. However, so has the threat. The need for concerted, co-ordinated and effective action is immediate and urgent. So, it is encouraging to see so many global leaders joining the UK in setting more ambitious national targets to protect the natural world for future generations.

President Joe Biden this week hosted a virtual summit of 40 nations to discuss the climate emergency. This will provide momentum before the UK hosts COP26, the UN's global climate change conference, in Glasgow in November. The UK has made a world-leading commitment this week to cut emissions by 78 per cent by 2035, and we are urging other nations to show the same level of ambition to reach net zero emissions by 2050.

New jobs are also at the heart of our strategy and the recent, landmark North Sea Transition deal will help to deliver these and other crucial aspects of the green energy revolution. Building on the decision from the UK to end support for the fossil fuel energy sector overseas and align government support behind clean growth industries, the deal will support workers, businesses and the supply chain through the transition.

And it is a transition. The offshore oil and gas industry has been a major British industrial success story and we need to ensure that these livelihoods and communities are protected. We will safeguard these by re-skilling this workforce, as many of the skills - geologists, project managers, engineers, fabricators - are transferrable across the wider energy sector.

To realise this vision and drive this jobs growth, we must take advantage of the significant export opportunities in emerging overseas markets in low-carbon technologies and services. Renewables now account for roughly a third of global energy capacity, so it is vital that we give UK companies a big slice of this pie by connecting them to overseas partners and projects, thus creating more opportunities for workers.

Projected export opportunities for the UK's low-carbon sector are estimated to be between £60bn and £170bn by 2030. The 10 Point Plan for a Green Industrial Revolution is designed to capitalise on our export potential by mobilising £12bn of government investment, with potentially three times as much from the private sector, to create and support up to 250,000 green jobs.

Our export credit agency, UK Export Finance (UKEF), has also put in place a £2bn direct lending facility dedicated to financing clean growth projects, helping UK exporters take advantage of opportunities they might otherwise miss.

This is already bearing fruit, with the financing of over £800m of renewable energy projects overseas since 2019, including four major offshore wind projects in Taiwan. Closer to home, we have seen businesses like Glasgow's PCT Group secure a its first-ever renewable contract through UKEF support, supplying cranes to service wind turbines at an offshore wind farm off the Fife coast.

UKEF also has representatives based in Africa, the Middle East and Asia, specifically focused on supporting exports in the renewable and clean growth sectors, as well as UK specialists in the North of England and Scotland to help SMEs take advantage of the transition, as we level up opportunities across the UK.

So, with the 51st Earth Day behind us, now is the time for all UK businesses - and clean growth ones in particular - to look to international markets and take British ingenuity to every corner of the planet.

We have the chance to help UK businesses succeed abroad, recover from the pandemic and deliver net zero right around the world. At the centre of this is the reinvigoration of our industrial heartlands, providing well-paid jobs and exports that will provide prosperity at home and lower emissions abroad.

From geologists to engineers, there are so many professions that will be involved in creating the next generation of technologies, building on some of the incredible innovation we are already seeing. With the necessary focus and investment we will not just save our planet but ensure that British businesses play a significant role in doing so.

Graham Stuart MP is Parliamentary Under Secretary of State for Exports at the Department for International Trade.

IAG becomes first European airline firm to commit to powering 10 per cent of its flights with sustainable aviation fuel by end of decade

International Airlines Group (IAG) has become the first major aviation firm in Europe to commit to powering 10 per cent of its flights with bio-based jet fuels by the end of the decade, in a move that will see the British Airways owner purchase one million tonnes of sustainable aviation fuel (SAF) a year.

Announcing the commitment yesterday to coincide with Earth Day, the airline giant said ramping up its use of SAF for its flights would enable it to cut its annual greenhouse gas emissions by two million tonnes by 2030, roughly equivalent to removing one million cars from Europe's roads each year.

Moreover, IAG announced it has extended its existing 2050 net zero emissions target to cover its entire supply chain, making it the first European airline to set such a goal for its Scope 3 value chain emissions, as it pledged to work with suppliers to achieve net zero for the products and services provided to the firm.

The announcement is a major boost for the fledgling market for SAF, which proponents claim has the potential to reduce emissions from flights by at least 70 per cent if used as a replacement for traditional jet fuel. As it stands, however, SAF has largely been trialled in smaller quantities blended alongside traditional jet fuel for commercial flights with critics warning its adoption is being hampered by cost and capacity challenges.

The news comes as the global aviation sector continues to reel from the devastating impacts of the Covid-19 pandemic which has severely reduced demand for international travel. However, the sector is still expected to see demand recover post-pandemic and with it a rising contribution to global greenhouse gas emissions, which currently stands at around two to three per cent.

"It's clearly challenging to transition to a low carbon business model but, despite the current pandemic, we remain resolute in our climate commitments," said Luis Gallego, IAG's chief executive. "Government support is critical to meet this target by attracting investment to construct sustainable aviation fuel plants that will deliver enough supply for the airline industry, creating highly valued green jobs and economic growth at global scale."

SAF can be made from a variety of sources, including waste cooking oil, animal fat or other plant oils, solid waste from homes and businesses, or forestry waste and energy crops.

IAG has pledged to invest $400m in the development of SAF over the next two decades, partnering with specialist sustainable aviation fuel developers LanzaJet and Velocys, and plotting Europe's first household waste-to-jet-fuel plant in the UK to start operations from 2025. British Airways has also struck a deal to purchase SAF from LanzaJet's US plant to power some of its flights from 2022.

With the right policy in place, IAG said that up to 14 SAF manufacturing plants could be built across the UK, which it said would create 6,500 jobs and save 3.6 million tonnes of CO2 per year.

Velocys CEO Henrik Wareborn said that SAF offered the potential to largely decarbonise flight without any modifications to existing jet engines, and that if integrated with carbon capture technologies it could even offer "negative-carbon emissions". 

"We are proud to be collaborating with an organisation who recognise the essential role SAF will play in significantly decarbonising the aviation sector by 2030 and achieving net zero emissions by 2050," he added.

The announcement follows the news earlier this week that the UK will for the first time include international aviation in its newly-announced 2035 target to reduce greenhouse gas emissions by 78 per cent from 1990 levels. A number of world leaders are also expected to travel to Glasgow via planes powered partly by green fuel for the crucial COP26 Climate Summit later this year, under plans being developed by the UK government, according to reports.

The UK's Transport Secretary, Grant Shapps, hailed IAG's "agenda-setting commitment" yesterday, which he said demonstrated "clear evidence of the progress we are making".

"These kinds of initiatives, along with our work through the Jet Zero Council, will help us rapidly accelerate towards our net zero targets as we build back better out of the pandemic," he said.

However, some environmental campaigners and experts remain wary of SAFs, questioning their ability to deliver promised emissions savings and replace global demand for aviation fuels without having a negative knock on impact on land use. As such, calls continue to grow for policymakers to take steps to curb demand for aviation, alongside measures to boost investment in new green aircraft technologies.

Insurance giant's stress test of 48 major economies finds climate impacts are on course to make world trillions of dollars poorer

Climate change is on course to slash up to 18 per cent off global GDP by 2050, making the world trillions of dollars poorer if mitigating action is not taken and global temperatures soar to 3.2C above pre-industrial levels by the end of the century, Swiss Re has warned.

A fresh analysis of 48 countries representing 90 per cent of the world's economy released yesterday by the insurance giant forecasts that based on current trajectories climate change will result in significant negative economic impacts by 2050, with Asian economies set to be the hardest hit by the worsening effects of rising temperatures.

China is at risk of losing nearly a quarter of its GDP by mid-century, it warns, while the US stands to lose close to 10 per cent, and Europe almost 11 per cent, according to the analysis.

In contrast, the report calculated that if Paris Agreement goals to limit average temperature rise to well below 2C are met, the global economy would likely still see a four per cent reduction in GDP by 2050.

The estimates are the result of a stress-test conducted by Swiss Re to examine how 48 major economies would be impacted by the ongoing effects of climate change under four different temperature scenarios, ranging from 3.2C down to below 2C.

But the analysis also sets out the benefits of investing in a net zero economy, estimating that adding just 10 per cent to the existing $6.3tr of annual global infrastructure investments could limit average global temperature rises to below 2C - just a fraction of the expected loss of global GDP that would result from not acting to decarbonise the economy.

As such, Swiss Re reiterated that climate change posed the biggest long term threat to the global economy, and that far more decisive action and higher sums of both private and public investment were urgently needed to deliver on net zero targets in line with the climate goals of the Paris Agreement.

"Climate risk affects every society, every company and every individual," said Thierry Léger, the firm's chief underwriting officer and chairman of Swiss Re Institute. "By 2050, the world population will grow to almost 10 billion people, especially in regions most impacted by climate change. So, we must act now to mitigate the risks and to reach net zero targets. Equally, as our recent biodiversity index shows, nature and ecosystem services provide huge economic benefits but are under intense threat. That's why climate change and biodiversity loss are twin challenges that we need to tackle as a global community to maintain a healthy economy and a sustainable future."

The insurance giant also evaluated each of the 48 countries' expected vulnerability to extreme dry and wet weather conditions as a result of climate change, which it said delivered similar conclusions from the GDP impact analysis.

Malaysia, Thailand, India, the Philippines, and Indonesia were found to be the most vulnerable to growing climate impacts, while advanced economies in the northern hemisphere - such as the US, Canada, Switzerland and Germany - were found to be the least vulnerable.

Swiss Re said mitigating climate change required a "whole menu of measures", such as carbon pricing policies, incentives to drive investment in credible nature-based carbon offsetting solutions, international alignment on taxonomy rules for green investments, and widespread climate risk disclosures from major firms.

Jérôme Haegeli, Swiss Re's chief economist, said climate change was a systemic risk that could only be addressed globally, but that "so far, too little is being done".

"Transparency and disclosure of embedded net zero efforts by governments and the private sector alike are crucial," he said. "Only if public and private sectors pull together will the transition to a low-carbon economy be possible. Global cooperation to facilitate financial flows to vulnerable economies is essential. We have an opportunity to correct the course now and construct a world that will be greener, more sustainable and more resilient."